AFFECTS
Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space
 

 

Test Ionospheric Warning GNSS

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Ionospheric Warning System

Threats for communication and navigation systems (e.g. GNSS applications and HF communication) often originate in ionospheric disturbances. Accurately timed warnings can help essentially to mitigate them. The currently developed Ionospheric Warning System is a multi-level warning system (c.f. Figure) with warnings ranging from long term predictions to real-time alerts. The warning messages are distributed on this website and additionally via Email to the user community. Interested users can subscribe to the eMail-service.

Early Warning Message for GNSS users

The first level warning, the Early Warning Message for GNSS users is fully operational. It has been developed within the EU FP7- project AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communication Through Space). The Early Warning for GNSS users is based on predictions of geoeffective solar transient events (e.g. PRESTO message). It is distributed about one to two days before the potential arrival of a solar event(e.g. coronal mass ejection) at Earth. The warning message comprises information on the expected arrival time at Earth, rough predictions of the geomagnetic activity, the uncertainty of the arrival time and the event probability.

L1-Warning Message

The second level will be called L1-Warning Message, named after the Earth- Sun liberation point (Lagrangian point L1), where satellites are orbiting at about 1.5 million kilometers from Earth, in the direct line between Sun and Earth. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite for example measures next to others solar wind and Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) parameters which enable to estimate the arriving solar transient event approximately 30 minutes before arrival at Earth (dependent on solar wind speed). Good geomagnetic activity forecasts (kp index and Dst index) up to 3 hours ahead, derived form ACE measurements, as well as first and rough approximations of the ionospheric disturbances are distributed in the L1-Warning Message.

Forecast Warning Message

The third level, the Forecast Warning Message, will be based on the detection of ionospheric disturbances in the ionospheric forecast (e.g. forecast of the Total Electron Content maps), by analysing deviations to quiet reference conditions. Forecast Warning Messages will be disseminated more than 30 minutes ahead of well predicted ionospheric disturbances.
To be developed

Ionospheric Alert Message

The Ionospheric Alert is a real-time warning message, based on detection of ionospheric pertubations in the current ionosphere, e.g. scintillations, TEC gradients and flares.
To be developed

References

Borries, C. and Berdermann, J. (2014): Early Warning of ionospheric disturbances for GNSS users; Proceedings of the ENC-GNSS 2014, 14-17th April 2014, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

Archive

Archive_CME_arrival

Contact

For more information, comments and suggestions on this warning message system, please contact:

Dr. Jens Berdermann
German Aerospace Center - DLR
Kalkhorstweg 53
17235 Neustrelitz
Germany
E-mail: Jens.Berdermann@dlr.de
Tel.: +49 (0)3981 480-106

Early Warning

Current Status

Source: SWACI Service at German Aerospace Center - DLR

Predicted ionosphere disturbance scale: I0 - Normal
Predicted condition of the Ionosphere Maximum DIX: not specified Monitoring of TEC is provided by IMPC.
Expected Hazards none
Latest Ursigram Ursigram, generated by Solar Influence Data Center (SIDC), provides 3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.

Last Early Warning Issue

Predicted ionosphere disturbance scale: I1 - Disturbed
Predicted start time (UTC): 2017-09-12T08:00:00 (+/-7 hours)
Predicted Ionosphere Forecast TEC maps up to 24 hours in advance. The onset of disturbances in the ionosphere can be forecasted about 30 minutes in advance.
Current Ionosphere Current and one hour forecasted TEC maps, provided by SWACI.
Predicted geomagnetic disturbances: expected minimum Kp: 3
Predicted geomagnetic disturbances: expected maximum Kp: 5
Expected Hazards Impacts on high frequency (HF) radio propagation expected. Influence on positioning and navigation is possible.
Influenced geographic area: not specified
Probability of incidence:50%

Source: SWACI Service at German Aerospace Center - DLR

Corresponding solar warning message issued by SIDC Belgium 2017-09-11T14:16:55 (UTC):

Event type: CME_arrival
Latest Presto Message: LATEST PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM

L1 Warning

Current Status

Predicted ionosphere disturbance scale: I1 - Disturbed
Predicted start time (UTC): 2013-11-13T16:00:00
Predicted Ionosphere:
predicted DIX:not specified
predicted Maximum TEC (>60N):not specified
predicted Maximum TEC (40N to 60N):not specified
predicted Maximum TEC (>60N):not specified
Forecast TEC map:Forecast TEC maps up to 24 hours in advance. The forecast is based on a perturbation TEC model, predicting the most probable developent of the ionospheric storm conditions.
Current TEC map:Current and one hour forecasted TEC maps, provided by SWACI.
Predicted geomagnetic activity:
predicted maximum Kp:not specified
predicted minimum Dst:0
Expected Hazards: Impacts on high frequency (HF) radio propagation expected. Influence on positioning and navigation is possible.
Influenced geographic area: not specified
Probability of incidence:not specified

Related solar transient event:
event type:not specified
event ID:2
update no:0
Source: SWACI Service at German Aerospace Center - DLR Issued: 2013-07-08T01:40:00

Last Issue

 

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Warning Message by Email

Early warning messages can be distributed via Email. To subscribe/ unsubscribe please use the correspondent formulars.